On russia's valuable earth

By Jerry PDX
saturday, march 22, 2025 at 11:13:00 a.m. edt

Trump is a little behind here, Zbigniew Brzezinski already laid this all out in his book: The Grand Chessboard

Interestingly, the CIA has posted the entire book on their website:

https://www.cia.gov/library/abbottabad-compound/36/36669B7894E857AC4F3445EA646BFFE1_Zbigniew_Brzezinski_-_The_Grand_ChessBoard.doc.pdf

There is an intriguing section on the Ukraine and it's key geopolitical importance. Presaging what was to come decades later:

"Ukraine, a new and important space on the Eurasian chessboard, is a
geopolitical pivot because its very existence as an independent
country helps to transform Russia. Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to
be a Eurasian empire. Russia without Ukraine can still strive for
imperial status, but it would then become a predominantly Asian
imperial state, more likely to be drawn into debilitating conflicts with
aroused Central Asians, who would then be resentful of the loss of their
recent independence and would be supported by their fellow Islamic
states to the south. China would also be likely to oppose any
restoration of Russian domination over Central Asia, given its
increasing interest in the newly independent states there. However, if
Moscow regains control over Ukraine, with its 52 million people and
major resources as well as its access to the Black Sea, Russia
automatically again regains the wherewithal to become a powerful
imperial state, spanning Europe and Asia. Ukraine's loss of
independence would have immediate consequences for Central
Europe, transforming Poland into the geopolitical pivot on the eastern
frontier of a united Europe."

I don't think Brzezinski was quite as prescient as he thought he was, he believed Russia, or the USSR back then, was the great enemy of the US, he did not anticipate the USSR's collapse and political/economic shift away from communism into a capitalist type of economy and more democratic political system. He also did not anticipate the rise of China as the true economic rival to the US and even worked with China to "contain" Russia's expansion into Afghanistan:

"1979 saw two major strategically important events: the overthrow of U.S. ally the Shah of Iran, and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. The Iranian Revolution precipitated the Iran hostage crisis, which would last for the rest of Carter's presidency. Brzezinski anticipated the Soviet invasion, and, with the support of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and the People's Republic of China, he created a strategy to undermine the Soviet presence."

I'm not sure Brzezinski understood that Russia's economic and imperial ambitions had always been limited by their lack of ocean shipping ports. Their only outlet to the Atlantic is a strip of land between the Baltics and Norway, their only warm weather access is through the Ukraine and Crimea. The Russian navy is anchored in Sevastopol and has to go through the very vulnerable Bosphorus Strait through Turkey to get to the Mediterranean and Atlantic. China has a long warm weather coastline with plenty of shipping points to be a major player in international ocean shipping commerce in the Pacific.

I do think that Trump is being wise to cultivate a closer relationship with Russia and view China and it's rise as the true enemy. Too bad Nixon, Carter, Brzezinski et al did not anticipate that back in the 70's.