By Grand Rapids Anonymous
monday, november 4, 2024 at 10:56:00 a.m. est
GRA: Yesterday, I wrote the same thing. Today, this article appeared.
“(zh) election day looms, and market pricing has tightened substantially for Kamala Harris. prediction markets which had recorded leads of more than 30 pts for Donald Trump this time last week now have that lead down to single digits. in the case of predictit, Kamala Harris is now narrowly favoured [sic] to win, although on polymarket Trump’s lead has returned.
“on top of the dramatic tightening in prediction markets, we have also seen some curious polling results in the final days of the campaign. a nyt/sienna poll found [fake] vice president Harris leading in north Carolina and Georgia, while Donald Trump closed the gap in Pennsylvania and remained well ahead in arizona. atlasintel found that Donald Trump leads in every swing state, including Georgia and north Carolina, and Rasmussen found that Trump has a 3-point lead in their national polling! meanwhile, Ann Selzer published a poll showing Kamala Harris leading 47-44 in iowa, which raised plenty of eyebrows, given the state’s reputation as a republican stronghold and Selzer’s strong reputation for the accuracy of her predictions.
[N.S.: I think that “strong reputation for the accuracy of her predictions” is about to take a hit.]
“given the variability and contradictory nature of the polling lately, maybe we should adopt the stance of Nate Silver who said, ‘it appears no one really knows who’s going to win—and in what manner. A squeaker—or a blowout.’”
GRA: I’ll leave it at that, but President Trump has his work cut out for him.
--GRA
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