Saturday, January 06, 2024

The Myth of the 11 Million: Already in 2014, an Old Immigration Hand Estimated that there were 50 Million Illegals in the U.S.!

[Will America become a Majority non-White Country in 2024?]

“The Myth of the 11 Million: Wall Street Analyst Estimates 21-25 Million Illegals Now in U.S.” [Not my title!]
By Nicholas Stix

[Written by Nicholas Stix in 2014, butchered by Peter Brimelow in 2014, and corrected by Stix in 2024.]


Above: Obama to Give Amnesty to 11 Million. (Or you know, whatever.)

Obama just gave legal status to an estimated five million illegal aliens and the Treason Lobby and its foreign allies are already shrieking for more. But how many more? Just how many illegal aliens have invaded America? There’s reason to believe the government’s estimates are wrong—and that the real number is shockingly larger.

For a suspiciously long time, the Main Stream Media has been using the figure of 11 million illegals, presumably because the current official estimate from the U.S. Census Bureau is 11 million-12 million. And Steven Camarota, of the Center for Immigration Studies, tells me that, using various Census Bureau tools such as the Current Population Study, he concurs that the number is around 11-12 million.

But my VDARE colleague, economist Edwin S. Rubenstein, while considering Camarota’s estimate to be credible, distinguishes between “net” and “gross” levels of illegals. The “net” level is the number on American soil at any given time. The “gross” number is the number that many have been on American soil at any time in the course of a year, which may contain a great deal of duplication. In an extreme case, a Mexican illegally crossing the border to work in a Texas border town 365 times in a year, and being counted as 365 illegal aliens.

To put it another way, the transient “flow” of illegals may greatly exceed the quasi-permanent “stock”—which means that the “stock” might increase sharply if the President’s action encourages the transient “flow” to stay.

And in January 2005, Robert Justich and Betty Ng, analysts at the major Wall Street investment bank Bear Stearns, caused a stir with an exhaustive report, The Underground Labor Force is Rising to the Surface. [PDF] This report particularly delighted VDARE, because it supported the daring estimate made by D.A. King in VDARE in 2004: 20 million illegals.

The Justich-Ng report actually cited VDARE’s Rubenstein, on the divergence that illegal aliens are causing between the Household and Payroll employment surveys, although the citation was mutilated in the footnotes, no doubt for reasons of Political Correctness.

Justich and Ng found the claims and the processes of the Census Bureau lacking in credibility. Seeking to get more accurate numbers, they developed a brilliantly inventive methodology. As variables, they measured cash remittances (wire transfers) to the nations that are the chief sources of what they call “undocumented immigrants”; housing starts; the building of new schools; and border-crossings. Based on these, Justich and Ng estimated that there were 20 million illegal aliens residing in America.

I recently spoke to Justich, now a consultant. He told me he now thinks that there are 21 million to 25 million illegal aliens present on American soil.

Justich says the Census Bureau simply has no reliable methodology for determining the numbers of illegal aliens. His experience is that illegals avoid census workers—even though they are not asked about their immigration status—and refuse to otherwise participate in the census.

Therefore, the current numbers (as of 6:15 p.m., Friday, November 21, 2014), of 319,303,696 “residents” in the U.S.—including citizens, legal immigrants, and undocumented immigrants—and 12 million illegal aliens, bear no relation to one another. In other words, we cannot say that there are 319.3 million people residing in the U.S., including 12 million illegals; or that there are 331.3 million people residing in the U.S., including 12 million illegals.

Not only are the Census Bureau numbers worthless regarding illegals, but they are worthless regarding the total number of all categories of people residing in the U.S.

There are even bigger estimates of the illegal alien presence. Back in the fall of 2007, The Social Contract Press and Californians for Population Stabilization collaborated on a press conference (see video) below, and an entire issue of The Social Contract, seeking to answer the question I’m asking here. The speakers at this event all made estimates of the illegal population far above 11-12 million and spoke dismissively about the Census data provided by the government.

October 3, 2007 CAPS-Social Contract National Press Club Press Conference

James H. Walsh, a retired Associate General Counsel of the Immigration and Naturalization Service and federal (DOJ) prosecutor, and Fred Elbel, of the Colorado Alliance for Immigration Reform, both guesstimated the number of illegals on American soil to be 38 million. Walsh and Elbel both used the “get away” ratio method for determining the total, with a ratio of 3:1—three illegal aliens that got away for every one that got caught. As Elbel emphasized to me recently, other observers used ratios of as high as 7:1. Elbel told me that he now believes the total to be closer to “50 million.”

Walsh recounted repeated cases in which federal officials were caught foisting fakestats on the public, radically undercounting the number of illegal aliens on American soil, and adjusting the numbers based solely on political expediency, rather than improved counting methods. (I was unable to reach Walsh for this article.)

The bottom line: there is significant evidence to suggest that the Census Bureau is either consciously or unconsciously undercounting illegal aliens. As a result, in the area of illegal alien estimates, radicals have been proved right before.

And remember, any estimate still underestimates the problem. In the past, amnestied illegal aliens have sponsored three relatives, on average (parents, children, and siblings). So even if we accept the lowest possible estimate of around 11 million illegal aliens, Amnesty will result, fairly quickly, in 44 million-48 million new immigrants.

And that doesn’t count their new, U.S.-born offspring. If we take the lowest figure (44 million), and the non-Hispanic white population’s below-replacement fertility rate, as early as by 2025, non-Hispanic whites will be in the minority in the nation their forefathers built—and which they will still be paying for.

As the Federation for American Immigration Reform’s Bob Dane commented to me:

What about the next flow? Because our new de facto policy is amnesty every ten years, it ultimately eviscerates the limiting principle that every nation has inherent in its immigration system. And if you have no enforcement of the law, the system collapses.

But that’s the point. Collapsing the System and America’s First World identity has been the objective of Obama’s government all along.

Immigration patriots need to know that it’s not about Amnesty for five million people—it’s about enabling the fifty million that will reduce the U.S.A. to a mere geographic expression, and the historic American nation to a despised minority.

Nicholas Stix [email him ] is a New York City-based journalist and researcher, much of whose work focuses on the nexus of race, crime, and education. He spent much of the 1990s teaching college in New York and New Jersey. His work has appeared in Chronicles, The New York Post, Weekly Standard, Daily News, New York Newsday, American Renaissance, Academic Questions, Ideas on Liberty and many other publications. Stix was the project director and principal author of the NPI report, The State of White America-2007. He blogs at Nicholas Stix, Uncensored.



Anonymous said...

The gov't doesn't count so good when they don't feel like it--as with illegals.White folks who they consider "trouble"?Got them down to the exact person in every city.


Anonymous said...

jerry pdx
They also claim that over 50% of immigrants, both legal and illegal are female. However, I have not been able to find any source of this claim, it just appears in various pro alien invader articles. People who write that are liars, pure and simple. Young females in the reproductive age range are the lowest group represented, young males in the reproductive age are the highest.

I don't know if I would believe any government statistics on this anyways, they feed us this lie about only 11 million illegals, they'll lie about the gender ratio.

Anonymous said...

I was going to ask a dumb question and say,if it's only men that are coming over the border,who are they reproducing with?(Raping White women doesn't count for an answer--it wouldn't account for the massive Mex population explosion--over and above the invasion numbers.)
Or are the mex females in the U.S. banging every spic out there and are perpetually pregnant?

"The Case of the Perpetually Pregnant Pija"
(I had to look up a Spanish word for female,lol).

Next on Perry Mason.


Anonymous said...

Here is another Spanish word for you: puta--means whore. I don't speak Spanish, but when you live in the Southwest, surrounded by Hispanics, you can't help but pick up a few words.
It is truly amazing that Mexicans and other Hispanics can pour over the border, day after day, month after month, and year after year--but we are expected to believe that the number in the country doesn't increase. Obviously it is a HUGE lie--just like the clot shot is "safe and effective."
The problem with allowing so many Hispanics in is that they have a culture of dishonesty. Every Hispanic I got to know turned out to have some kind of scam. Hispanic politicians are notorious crooks, but so are the ordinary folks. One guy I worked with would cash his paychecks in the US then take the cash back to his home in Mexico--thus avoiding taxes in both countries. He also bragged about turning his electric meter upside down so it would run backwards part of the month. He would bring in merchandise from Mexico to sell and declare it was only gifts to avoid customs. I could go on and on. Another Hispanic bragged that the child he had with an ex-girlfriend looked just like him--but he managed to avoid child support. If they can get away with something, they will do it--morality doesn't matter to them.

Anonymous said...

That figure of 11 to 12,000,000 illegals in the USA was originally told it in the year 2006 since that time probably many more illegals have entered during that 17 year. If we just go with the lowball figure of 1 million per year that means you probably have about 30 million illegals and that does not count what is injured during the reign of Biden, we are talking about maybe 5 million a year with Biden and power over a four year term that is an additional 20 million you do the math on it

Anonymous said...

When they gave amnesty to the illegal aliens, back in 1984 they thought about 1 million illegals would claim amnesty it turned out to be 3 million claimed amnesty so that counts are always under counted sometimes grossly so probably the same now as it was back, then maybe worse doomed I tell you doomed