"the failed soothsayers of armageddon" by Abe Greenwald
"where do the doomsday prognosticators about Israel's attack on iran go from here? before Israel and the U.S. destroyed iran's nuclear program, these hysterics had made frightful predictions. they warned of everything from a prolonged nation-building slog to a new migrant crisis to a world-wide financial collapse to a global (possibly nuclear) war. they predicted that thousands of Americans would die in a week. and they got everything wrong.
"here's what happened: in 12 days, Israel and the U.S. wiped out iran's ability to make a nuclear weapon. iran launched some missiles and drones at Israel (and an American base), most of which were intercepted. no one else got involved. Donald Trump instituted a cease-fire and has been nominated for a Nobel peace prize that he will never win. but you can expect more good news to come out of the region soon, because an enfeebled iran opens up a world of possibilities.
"it's bad enough to be proven spectacularly wrong immediately and before the entire world. but it's worse to then be stuck on the losing side as the victors advance the common good. this can force you to say very stupid things. for example, before Donald Trump sent in the b-2s, Matt Duss, former foreign-policy adviser to Bernie Sanders and forever critic of Israel, wrote that he was 'in horror at the prospect of a direct conflict between iran and America.' he now acknowledges the catastrophe that wasn't thus: 'not for the first time, it seems that lots of people aren't going to die because iran showed more restraint than the U.S. and Israel.' some claims are too disconnected from reality to merit debunking. but they do merit laughter.
"and you can laugh at this, too. in the new york times, Ali Vaez, iran director for the international crisis group, told reporter Farnaz Fassihi that everyone—Israel, the U.S., and iran—can claim a win here: 'the United States can say it has set back iran's nuclear program,' he said. 'Israel can say it has weakened iran, a regional adversary, and iran can say it has survived and pushed back against much stronger military powers.
"and I can say that I'm the pope, but that won't transport me to the vatican.
"the truth is that Israel and the United States are the victors, and iran is the loser. no one, including Ali Vaez and ayatollah Khamenei himself, believes otherwise.
"and everyone knows this, too: iran 'survived' because Israel let it survive. Israel had total domination of the skies and comprehensive intelligence on iranian political and military leadership. that simple combination would have been enough for Israel to have destroyed the regime if it had chosen to do so. instead, the Jewish state showed restraint. as it so often does.
"Fassihi, who is the times' united nations bureau chief, closes her article tellingly with this quote from the iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi: 'I'm not saying they haven't inflicted harm, yes, there was harm,' he said of the Israelis. 'but they did not achieve their main goal to strip us completely of all our capabilities or any other goals they may have had.
"Israel's main goal was to knock out iran's nuclear program, and that's exactly what it did. you can gripe over missing uranium or an intact beaker in a cratered laboratory, but the overall program is no longer viable. in fact, when iranian officials now boast that they will 'restore' it, they're admitting that they must rebuild what they lost—the ability to enrich uranium to weapons-grade levels. and if they're foolish enough to try this, they'll lose it all over again. so, too, will the catastrophists of the anti-Israel brigades.
Abe Greenwald is the executive editor of COMMENTARY.
| Today's Podcast |  | |  | | JUNE 23, 2025 | | Trump's Ceasefire and Its Discontents | | LISTEN HERE | | | Articles of Note |  | | | |
2 comments:
It's Mamdani !!!!! HaHa.
I'll give Col. Douglas MacGregor until July 6th to be right.
Then discarded.
IF he's right,WE'LL probably be discarded.
--GRA
Post a Comment