Daniel Horowitz: Top 7 Observations from Election Night

Reposted by Nicholas Stix
 

Top 7 Observations from Election Night
By Daniel Horowitz
November 6th, 2014
Conservative Review

• Referendum on Obama: This election was not about stopping gridlock and the desire of voters for bipartisanship. This was all about stopping Obama. Republicans were unpopular and most of them lacked a coherent positive message, yet they still won in a landslide. McConnell was slightly underwater in his unfavorable rating, according to exit polls, yet he won by 16 points, buoyed by coal country voters. They did not vote for McConnell because they love his brand of Republicanism; they voted for him because they want Obama’s agenda halted. Tom Cotton’s campaign made it clear that Obamacare and amnesty were the two key issues and they propelled them to a 17-point victory over a well-liked incumbent, carrying 71 of 74 counties.

• Conservatives won the primaries: As Ron Brownstein of National Journal notes, all of the Republican Senate candidates, especially the ones that won, ran as conservatives. Pat Roberts especially ran to the right and pounded Greg Orman as a pro-amnesty liberal. He outperformed the polls by 10 points. They would not have been forced to move to the right and make clear commitments without those primaries. Now we must hold them accountable.

After election night, there are only 7 states where Democrats control the trifecta of state government.

• State Legislatures: Republicans entered the night with control of 58 state legislative chambers, Democrats controlled 40. Moreover, there were 23 states where Republicans controlled both houses plus the governorship. [They flipped the West Virginia House and tied in the state Senate, the Minnesota House, both the Nevada Senate and House, New Mexico House, Maine Senate, New Hampshire House, New York Senate, and Colorado Senate.] After election night, there are only 7 states where Democrats control the trifecta of state government. This provides conservatives with a great opportunity to begin forcing change from the states and push for Article V conventions to restore our Republic, as Mark Levin laid out in his compelling book, The Liberty Amendments.

• Democrats are an urban party: It appears that Republicans now control roughly 85% of the landmass in terms of House districts. Obviously, many of these counties are sparsely populated, but it goes to show that Obama has made the Democrat Party toxic outside of core urban areas.

There is no issue Republicans have shied away from more than defending marriage and state’s rights.

• Young voters waking up: Republicans lost the under-30 vote by only 11 points. They won the white vote under 30 by 11 points. But more interestingly, if you break down the under 30 age bracket into groups of 18-24 and 25-29, Republicans actually did one point better with the younger demographic, defying the conventional wisdom that Republicans do worse the younger the voters are. This might suggest that those who have come of age during the Obama presidency might lean more towards limited government. In 2010, the 18-24 age group went for Democrats by a whopping 18 points.

• Role of government: When asked whether government should do more or do less and leave more functions to individuals, the latter won out by a 54-41% margin. There is a lot of opportunity for a small government message.

• Gay Marriage: There is no issue Republicans have shied away from more than defending marriage and state’s rights. If there’s any issue that should be a consensus by now, it is gay marriage – simply because there is no organized opposition. Yet, support and opposition for mandating gay marriage was split evenly according to exit polls. In Virginia, 53% oppose forcing states to adopt gay marriage. Imagine what the polling would look like if Republicans actually fought back and articulated the threats to religious liberty?