| Posted: 04 Sep 2019 05:19 AM PDT Natural population decline provides an opportunity to transition to a system that values sustainable and equitable human well-being.  |
The benefits of declining populations
Billboard in Sintra, Portugal.
A new international billboard campaign encourages the public and policymakers to "Celebrate Low Birthrates!" and "Shrink Towards Abundance!" The goals of the campaign are to draw attention to the benefits of declining populations and encourage politicians to rethink and reorganize the current economic system to take advantage of depopulation dividends. The environmental benefits of declining populations are generally accepted, but how can we reorganize our economies to accommodate declining populations? Here we examine how natural population decline provides an opportunity to transition to a system that values sustainable and equitable human well-being. "Celebrate Low Birthrates!" or "Shrink Towards Abundance!" These are the phrases you may see on billboards if you find yourself in Portugal, Singapore or the Netherlands. A new international billboard campaign, The Great Decrease, provides a refreshing look at low birth rates and population decline from a much needed perspective. The campaign is funded by Ultra Ultra, a Dutch artistic design and campaign agency that aims to increase awareness of social issues. One aim of the campaign is to raise awareness to population issues and encourage experts and policymakers to embrace low birth rates. A tough but necessary task, especially with some governments putting up billboards to encourage people to have more children. So far, the media response has focused more on confirming the billboards legality and identifying their funders, rather than initiating a useful conversation. However, voluntary population decrease is likely to become the 'new norm' in European countries (including European Russia). Europe's population is on track to decline by 37.2 million by mid-century, from the current 747.6 million to 710.4 million by 2050, due to persistent below-replacement fertility rates. This is great news that should indeed be celebrated, as fertility declines are the natural outcome of achieving some of our societies' fundamental goals, including healthy children and gender equality[1]. However, many are apprehensive of this trend, since population decline tends to cause problems within the current growth-focused economy. It is clear that adjustments must be made. That is one outcome The Great Decrease campaign hopes to achieve, in part by encouraging policymakers to reorganize pension systems and other economic institutions to accommodate ageing and smaller populations. Natural population decline should be embraced as a hard-earned opportunity to transition to a truly sustainable economy that recognizes limits to growth.
Billboard in Singapore
So, how can we achieve this? Firstly, we need to address common depopulation concerns, such as potential labor shortages and pension shortfalls, so the general public is more willing to listen. There are other solutions to these issues besides increasing retirement ages; for example, increasing labor force participation. A shrinking labor pool can tighten labor markets and increase labor force participation by unemployed and underrepresented groups such as women, young people who require training, and older people who choose to work longer. A recent European study showed that an increase in average labor force participation rates by an additional one to two percentage points can substitute for a one-year increase in the normal pension age[2].
We must also reexamine how we measure economic success. With a shrinking labor force, economies will inevitably slow and at times contract. Just like declining populations, this will become the 'new norm.' As such, we should shift our measures of economic health to measures that better capture satisfaction and actual well-being. Confirming many people's intuitions, studies suggest that economic growth does not increase well-being in wealthy developed countries[4]. A better measure of economic success could be per capita income growth, since in countries with shrinking populations, per capita incomes can continue to grow so long as the economy is shrinking less rapidly than the population. A gradual downsizing of populations and economies in high-income countries would help facilitate the transition to a different kind of macroeconomic system. That begs the larger question: what kind of economic model do we want? Whether it's a steady state economy or the more recently proposed doughnut economy, we need an economic system that values human and ecological prosperity. Instead of economies that grow whether or not they help us thrive, we need economies that help us thrive, whether or not they grow. So, what can you do? Spread the word. Most people have not considered the concept of a non-growing economy except as something to fear. Talk to your fellow citizens. Demand that politicians start enacting policies that work towards the true objective: ecologically sustainable and equitable human well-being. The best news? We can start by celebrating low birth rates. References
- Götmark F, Cafaro P, O'Sullivan J. Aging Human Populations: Good for Us, Good for the Earth. Trends Ecol Evol. 2018;33(11):851-862. doi:10.1016/J.TREE.2018.08.015
- Scherbov S, Sanderson WC, Mamolo M. Quantifying policy trade-offs to support aging populations. Demogr Res. 2014;30(1):579-608. doi:10.4054/DemRes.2014.30.20
- Sanderson WC, Scherbov S, Gerland P. The end of population aging in high-income countries. In: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research. Vol 16. ; 2018:163-175. doi:10.1553/populationyearbook2018s163
- Juknys R, Liobikienė G, Dagiliūtė R. Deceleration of economic growth – the main course seeking sustainability in developed countries. J Clean Prod. 2018. doi:10.1016/j.ppees.2016.11.003
Reprinted with permission by Frank Götmark – Project leader of The Overpopulation Project(TORP); Professor, Animal ecology and Conservation Biology, University of Gothenburg.
"The Life and Death of NSSM 200: How the Destruction of Political Will Doomed a U.S. Population Policy" by Stephen D. Mumford, DrPH.amazon.com/Life-Death-NSS…See Church and State's other Tweets
4 comments:
"The Benefits of Declining Populations,"benefits only the ethnic groups who AREN'T declining--not the whites of the US or Europe--they are in big trouble.I blame the drop in US birthrate on all the women who refused to have sex with me lol.
Here's something that I think happens to many middle aged guys(50ish-60ish),and it just happened to me three times in two weeks.
If you're talking with a young girl,say early twenties-at a restaurant,health club,grocery store--and you go there a lot,you say hello,shoot the breeze,not trying to get in their pants at all--and out of the blue,they mention "my boyfriend",after months of conversation--you know what that means--"I'm not available."
Three times in two weeks--a record.Then I thought about it and laughed because they had misinterpreted my friendliness for a come on,but then on second thought,it made me realize, another marker has been reached for GRA.
Here's a quick list of verbals you hear from females through the years:
"Are your parents home?"
"Want to live together?"
"I have a boyfriend."
The last one is"Are you leaving me any money in the will?"
Ahh,life.
--GRA
jerry pdx
You mean you just started hearing women with the "My boyfriend" stuff in middle age? Damn, you're doing better than me, I've been hearing that my whole life. It's like that Seinfeld crack: "Don't you love how they slip it in there".
Then again I live in Portland and girls, even unattractive ones, always do have a boyfriend, a relative lack of single females and overabundance of single men make even the fatties a hot item. Go to a single bar around here and you'll see an international crush of single men and a few entitled fat chicks sitting around acting like they're god's gift. Go on Youtube and listen to Tom Leykis, his rants about Portland and it's lack of attractive women are legendary, and absolutely correct. Most of kind of girls I like moved away to places like LA, Phoenix or Miami as soon as they were old enough then were replaced by gazillions of dudes from all over the world, it's that kind of town. Only reason I didn't move away decades ago was because I had children to raise. To make things worse it's the interracial dating capital of the country, for white women and black men that is, you can't walk down the street without seeing 3 or 4 of those kind of couples going out of their way to be seen. Don't take that stuff about not blacks in Portland seriously, trust me, there's no lack of blacks here, especially young black .....guys, they're all over the place.
I love the verbal list, though I've never gotten "Are your parents home". I do get "Want to Live together"...from single mothers with 3 or 4 kids and a deadbeat ex but we know what they need, lots of help raising their little brats and lots of $$$$. I'm not that kind of guy, I don't pay no matter what. All that being said, I don't think I've done too badly over the years (after a difficult breakup up with my children's mother), especially considering the circumstances here but it would be nice to live somewhere where every halfway decent looking girl isn't being swarmed by 30 or 40 white, black, Mexican or Muslim dudes 24/7.
jerry pdx
Not a mention of mass migration being orchestrated to "address" sagging populations? How can you write an article like that without acknowledging that? I think the key issue (well, there's a lot of them) is consent. If people choose to have less children that's fine, dropping populations isn't bad in itself as long as it's organic and not a result of some enforced child birth program. Cultural patterns can shift and eventually people may well start having more children due to a better standard of life because there are less people. However, this insane, evil and immoral mass importation of 3rd worlders is not being done with the consent of the majority, it's financed and promoted by a small cabal of the ultra wealthy of this world. We know who they are, their aims are not secret, they are just camouflaged by a mass propaganda campaign. A truly informed population would understand that demographic and cultural change is being forced on them and that they have not consented.
I should have noted the ages those female quotes have occurred(or might occur):
"Are your parents home?"(teens)
"Want to live together?"(20s-40s)
"I have a boyfriend."(50s-60s)
The last one is"Are you leaving me any money in the will?"(70s up)
--GRA
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