By Grand Rapids Anonymous
monday, november 4, 2024 at 10:56:00 a.m. est
GRA: Yesterday, I wrote the same thing. Today, this article appeared.
“(zh) election day looms, and market pricing has tightened substantially for Kamala Harris. prediction markets which had recorded leads of more than 30 pts for Donald Trump this time last week now have that lead down to single digits. in the case of predictit, Kamala Harris is now narrowly favoured [sic] to win, although on polymarket Trump’s lead has returned.
“on top of the dramatic tightening in prediction markets, we have also seen some curious polling results in the final days of the campaign. a nyt/sienna poll found [fake] vice president Harris leading in north Carolina and Georgia, while Donald Trump closed the gap in Pennsylvania and remained well ahead in arizona. atlasintel found that Donald Trump leads in every swing state, including Georgia and north Carolina, and Rasmussen found that Trump has a 3-point lead in their national polling! meanwhile, Ann Selzer published a poll showing Kamala Harris leading 47-44 in iowa, which raised plenty of eyebrows, given the state’s reputation as a republican stronghold and Selzer’s strong reputation for the accuracy of her predictions.
[N.S.: I think that “strong reputation for the accuracy of her predictions” is about to take a hit.]
“given the variability and contradictory nature of the polling lately, maybe we should adopt the stance of Nate Silver who said, ‘it appears no one really knows who’s going to win—and in what manner. A squeaker—or a blowout.’”
GRA: I’ll leave it at that, but President Trump has his work cut out for him.
--GRA
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FIRST PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS:DIXVILLE NOTCH TIED AT THREE VOTES FOR TRUMP,THREE FOR hARRIS
(The hill)
(fake)Vice President Harris and former(sic)President Trump are tied in Dixville Notch, N.H., as the township’s six votes resulted in a split for the presidential nominees, CNN reported early Tuesday morning.
Four Republicans and two undeclared voters participated, according to the outlet.
The outcome was the first of this election and was announced 12 minutes after midnight, The New York Times said.
In 2020, the township cast five votes for President(sic) Biden and in 2016, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton(ick)earned four of the seven votes. Trump garnered two votes that election cycle and one went to the Libertarian candidate.
--GRA
EARLY VOTING BY REPUBLICANS IS CHANGE IN VOTING PATTERN;"MATH DOESN'T WORK FOR DEMOCRATS,"ANALYST SAID ON CNN.
(ZH)CNN panel looked shocked after guest Marc Lotter suggested a significant shortfall in Democrat early voting vs. 2020 portends a bad time for Kamala Harris.
"The math doesn't work. The Democrats are down 1.7 million early votes in the battleground states in urban areas," said Lotter. "They are down 1.4 million votes in the battleground states among women voters."
"Rural voters have overperformed early by 300,000," he continued, noting that "Democrats have to win their races early. Republicans generally win them on election day."
"The margins don't add up right now for the Democrats in any of these battleground states."
Lotter's comments come after the Trump campaign touted bullish data showing Republicans gaining ground with the early vote in battleground states vs. the 2020 election cycle.
According to the campaign, new and infrequent voters are leaning more Republican than Democrat based on the latest indications from Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania, the NY Post reports, citing a source in the camp.
"In those states, Democrats have more than 1.4 million voters who voted before Election Day in 2020 or 2022 but have not voted yet” — despite early voting being closed in nearly every state — “and many not having even requested a mail ballot," the source said, suggesting that Democrat turnout might not be as strong this time around.
GRA:Comparing "Covid voting" patterns in 2020 to 2024 is ridiculous. I voted early for the first time this election,but it's only one vote,no matter WHEN I vote. What it all boils down to is how many women,men,blacks and mex vote--and in what percentages--and it doesn't matter WHEN they vote.
--GRA
HOUR AND A HALF WAIT TIME TO VOTE IN KILLADELPHIA AS OF 2 PM.
GRA:An nbc reporter walked from the voting area to the end of the line in a Philly precinct to illustrate the(at least)90 minute wait time to cast a ballot in today's election.
There were a lot of women and a lot of blacks as Jacob Sobborhof quickly moved out to the street from the building. The crowd appeared to be about 50% blacks and 60% women. Most of the black women were obese.
--GRA
MACHINE "MALFUNCTION" FORCES EXTENSION OF VOTING HOURS IN SOME CITIES IN PENNSYLVANIA(OF COURSE).
(NewsNation) — A judge has allowed a Pennsylvania county to extend its voting hours after a technical problem prevented some people from scanning their ballots.
The Cambria County Board of Elections filed an emergency petition Tuesday morning seeking to end polling hours at 10 p.m. ET rather than 8 p.m. ET.
“We understand that there are some line delays on the ground,” Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley wrote on X. “We need you to stay in line. We need you to fill out your ballot in full and deliver it. Our Pennsylvania lawyers are all over this issue and will ensure fairness and accuracy in the process.”
A judge granted the extension, and polls will remain open until 10 p.m. ET.
Machines in the region malfunctioned Tuesday and prevented some voters from scanning their completed ballots, according to the petition.
The issue delayed operations for several hours and threatened “to disenfranchise a significant number of voters” in the area, according to the petition.
The county is home to about 133,000 people and 85,000 registered voters, according to 2023 tallies from the state elections division.
GRA:THE key state in the election and 85,000 potential votes will be counted or not counted--who knows? "Malfunction"--right.
--GRA
hARRIS CAMPAIGN SAYS(ARE THEY LYING?),"WE HAVE EXCEEDED VOTER NUMBERS IN KILLADELPHIA."
GRA:According to the Harris campaign,"We hit our target of voter numbers in Philadelphia by noon today--plus more than that as the day went on."
They are feeling confident about winning Pennsylvania,because they need a lot of jogger voters--which Philly is full of.
--GRA
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