“The Secret History of the 21st Century: How It’s Been Hiding in Plain Sight All Along”: Part VI, the Conclusion of Steve Sailer’s Speech

Re-posted by N.S.

[Video and transcript, Part I: here;

Part II;

Part III;

Part IV; and

Part V.]

Finally, this system doesn’t even work for its winning beneficiaries as we’ve seen statistically demonstrated during the “Racial Reckoning” that followed the death of George Floyd on May 25, 2020.

This should not have come as a surprise. After Michael Brown’s death at Ferguson in August 2014, there was a Ferguson Effect in which the police, having been informed by the Establishment that blacks were suffering from too much law and order, retreated to the donut shop. We saw homicides go up first in the St. Louis area, and then in other cities where Black Lives Matter triumphed over the cops, such as Baltimore in April 2015 and Chicago in November 2015.

In contrast, the even bigger Floyd Effect was national and virtually immediate, with blacks shooting blacks soaring all across the country.

Was it Black Lives Matter getting all these black lives murdered?

Yes. Yes, it was.

The social science smoking gun is that both times blacks also quickly started to die by car crash in record numbers. As the cops got the message that blacks were not to be pulled over as often for bad driving, much less searched for illegal handguns or called in for outstanding warrants, blacks started driving worse and packing more heat. This combination is one of the clearest effects known to the social sciences.

Or would be if anybody knew it.

Let’s look at three graphs and a table:

First, here’s a graph I created two years ago from statistics published by the federal National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

Traffic Fatalities Table

The Racial Reckoning on the Roads, by Steve Sailer, TakiMag, June 8, 2021

Black deaths in car crashes soared 55% from June 2019 to June 2020. For the last seven months of 2020, black traffic fatalities were 36% higher than in the last seven months of 2019. The rest of the population was dying more too, but up only 9%.

black Deaths by Week 2018–2022

Second, we can also drill down to the weekly level to see whether COVID (the vertical yellow line) or George Floyd (the vertical black line) mattered more. The CDC makes available cause-of-death statistics by week since 2018. We can see that black deaths by homicides (the red line—mostly due to blacks shooting each other, of course) soared immediately after George Floyd’s death on May 25, 2020. For instance, the most murderous single day in Chicago’s entire infamous history of homicide was Sunday, May 31, 2020, with 18 murders.

Nationally, black motor-vehicle accident deaths (the blue line) ramped up almost as sharply over a few weeks as awareness grew that cops weren’t pulling over as many bad drivers due to the Racial Reckoning.

How big a role did COVID play in the 2020 increase in black deaths by homicide and auto accident? First, there weren’t huge increases seen in foreign countries, because they didn’t have America’s Racial Reckoning. Second, the black response to the Racial Reckoning was larger and faster than any other group’s, although, unfortunately, the message seemed to get through to Hispanics more in 2021 that the cops weren’t on the prowl as much anymore.

My guess, though, would be that if COVID played a major role in the Floyd Effect it was via stimulus checks and the rent moratorium putting more cash in the pockets of the underclass, which encouraged them to act out more during the depolicing era. I call murders and crashes “Deaths of Exuberance.”

Back in 2015, Angus Deaton was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics. Many ask whether Economics is a real Nobel, but in this case the award proved highly beneficial, because a few weeks later when Deaton and his wife Ann Case published a landmark study of the increase among the white working class in “Deaths of Despair”—suicide, cirrhosis, and opioid overdose—the press finally paid attention.

The explosion in black homicides and traffic fatalities during the George Floyd era is a mirror image of Deaths of Despair. Getting yourself shot at a block party because you dissed the wrong guy or driving into a bridge abutment at 105 mph are “Deaths of Exuberance.”

Homicide Rate by Race Table

Third, the scale of the increase in black deaths is huge by historic standards. The CDC makes available on its WONDER website causes of death going back to 1999 by month. The top graph is homicide victimizations (not perpetrations). You can see 9/11 on the left side. Amazingly, for African-Americans, 9/11 is dwarfed by their self-inflicted victimizations during the multi-year Floyd Effect.

One obvious point that gets covered up by the media is that year in and year out, blacks die by homicide (almost all at the hands of other blacks) vastly more than other groups. And even more so lately.

I’m not sure if there is a more stunning graph in all the social sciences than the one above.

Unless it’s this data table, which considers four separate tests of the hypothesis that the Black Lives Matter movement, during its two eras of triumph (after Ferguson and after George Floyd), helped get huge numbers of extra blacks killed in two different ways: homicides and motor vehicle accidents.

The Two Effects of the Two black lives matter Era

(For the record, about 1,297 whites were also lynched in the same period.)

During the Ferguson Effect, black homicide deaths increased 27% from 2014 to 2016 and black motor vehicle deaths were up 24%. During the Floyd Effect, black homicide victimizations surged 44% from 2019 to 2021 and car crash deaths were up 39%.

Overall, black Deaths of Exuberance were more than 10,000 lives more in 2021 than in 2014. Just in 2021 alone, the 10,353 incremental black homicide and auto accident deaths were three times than the vastly publicized 3,446 lynching deaths of all blacks in all American history.

Heckuva job, black lives matter.

But virtually nobody knows this. The media won’t publish the two graphs together. It simply doesn’t fit with our era’s naïve worship of Diversity.

And it would make them look bad. At least after the Ferguson Effect, they should have known better. But instead, The Establishment fell hook, line, and sinker for Black Lives Matter a second time, with the Floyd Effect’s incremental death toll much worse.

Embarrassment, self-interest, partisanship and ideology explain a lot about why virtually nobody has publicized my finding about the cause of the huge surge in Deaths of Exuberance, which is likely the most important in American social science since Case and Deaton’s 2015 discovery of Deaths of Despair.

But there is another reason: because I discovered it and I’m not to be mentioned. Why? Because I Notice things. Or something.

Okay, in conclusion, here’s my offer. I’m so sick of unneeded increments of my fellow American citizens dying suddenly by murder and car crash that I don’t need credit for noticing the dual Floyd Effect first. Anybody who wants to publicize this huge problem that depolicing leads to both more murders and more road wrecks should do so, and feel no obligation whatsoever to mention by contribution to science.

I don’t need the credit. I just want my country to learn an unwelcome but life-or-death lesson for once.

Thanks for listening.

Steve Sailer (Email him) has writings available on VDARE.com, on Unz.com, on TakiMag.com, on Twitter @steve_sailer, and in book form in .America's Half Blood Prince: Barack Obama's “Story of Race and Inheritance“