From Fakestats to No Stats: fbi Does Not Release Crime Stats for Last Quarter of 2021

By Eahilf
Saturday, March 26, 2022 at 3:11:00 A.M. EDT

“Why the FBI Won’t Release Quarterly Crime Stats for 2021.”

Academics and other experts who track the rising and falling of crime in America were expecting on Monday to see a fresh batch of data from the FBI: quarterly crime stats (courtesy of police departments) that would offer a picture of crime trends across the country in 2021. Instead, the agency announced that it would not be releasing the statistics, due to a lack of data provided by local police departments.

It’s a bit odd that in 1Q 2022, in the middle of a crime spike, the FBI claims local law enforcement hasn’t reliably reported data – did this ever happen in the past?

(N.S.: In the late 1990s or early 2000s, the FBI reported that the Uniform Crime Reports (UCRs) from the Boca Raton, FL PD were so lacking in credibility that the Bureau would not accept them for the foreseeable future. I have no idea how long that lasted.)

Saw the following comment about this (FWIW):

Make no mistake, the FBI will not be releasing complete crime statistics for 2021 because it doesn’t want the public to know just how bad the problem is, even compared to 2020. If tracking violent crime was important to them they would’ve achieved 100% compliance with their new system by now. ... At play is larger racial activism from both the FBI and big city police departments, as in, they want to keep all the resources for fighting the imaginary moral panic of “hate crimes” (political crimes) instead of being forced to spread them out to fight real crime. ... On a more partisan level, the FBI doesn’t want Republicans to have the data to support a law and order campaign in the midterms.

“‘I think if they release the full data it’d be really useful. COVID has shown us that crime trends change very quickly,’ Kaplan says.”

That was Jacob Kaplan, a criminology professor at Princeton University. COVID has shown us nothing to do with crime. All sorts of experts have played this game, whereby they blame everything on Covid.

TV ratings for sporting events down dramatically? Blame it on Covid. But TV sports ratings should have been up, because hundreds of millions of people were locked down in their homes, with nothing to do.

Crime up dramatically? Blame it on Covid. What was the causal nexus between Covid and crime? There wasn’t any. Again, with hundreds of millions of people locked down in their homes, crime should have gone down. However, blacks ignored the lockdown, which was aimed at White people (every limitation on personal freedom is aimed at White people). Meanwhile, urban police engaged in the most radical level of de-policing ever seen, while prosecutors and judges were issuing more free crimes to blacks than ever before.

But you can’t tell the truth. You have to lie about everything, so you can’t cite the real cause of the crime explosion: blacks, aided and abetted by police, prosecutors, judges and the media.

By the way, according to the linked story, the fbi/doj switched from their old ucr statistical system to nibrs (national incident-based reporting system (nibrs) nibrs is supposedly richer in details, but the fbi supposedly will only publish national crime stats if at least 60% of police departments buy into the nibrs system, and fewer than 60% of pds have. Among the departments that have refused to switch over are the nypd and lapd, the nation’s two biggest departments.

I don’t believe any of this. The fbi simply doesn’t want to publish crime stats. As for nibrs vs. ucrs, for 30 years, as one department after another has adopted fakestats practices, the ucrs have been worthless. The best statistical source is the national crime victimization survey (ncvs), in which researchers call people around the country, to ask if they’ve been victimized by criminals. The ncvs has for years determined that the crime rate is half what police departments have been admitting to in their ucrs. But with more and more people relying on unlisted cell phone numbers, the ncvs’ effectiveness is surely also diminishing. Chronicles Magazine published my first major report on fakestats in 1996:

“Crime Stories.”

Bibliography of stories, mostly by yours truly, on fakestats.