New China Virus Surge: Dallas County is in Deep, Deep Trouble

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From: Matt Goodman, D BRIEF Editor <newsletters@dmagazine.com>
To: add1dda@aol.com
Sent: Sun, Nov 15, 2020 2:26 p.m.

Dallas County is in Deep, Deep Trouble

Do you hear the alarms?

Sunday November 15 In the past 18 days, the provisional seven-day average of new coronavirus infections in Dallas County has jumped from 588 to 958, an increase of 63 percent. When we recorded 588, on October 28, that was the most new cases since July. Fast forward three weeks, and we're pushing into entirely new territory.   On Thursday, UT Southwestern Medical Center updated its forecasting. Hospitalizations across the 19 county Dallas-Fort Worth region are up 151 percent since their pandemic low, in September. The health system believes Dallas and Tarrant counties "are expected to exceed previous highwater marks in the next week or so." As it stands, we're on pace to record 2,500 new daily COVID-19 infections by November 24.   That's before Thanksgiving, a holiday that seems uniquely positioned to spread the virus through families. Let's hope the weather stays mild enough that folks can sit in their backyards. In the past week, 10 K-12th grade schools have canceled in-person schooling because of coronavirus infections.   Dr. Philip Huang, the head of Dallas County Health and Human Services (and whose name you surely know by now), is urging workplaces to telecommute and telling residents to stop congregating inside other people's homes. He says this is a "time of extreme spread."   I encourage you to keep your eye on this tool, a COVID-19 risk assessor from researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology and Stanford University. Right now, in Dallas County, it is 64 percent likely that a COVID-19 positive individual will be among a gathering of 50 people. If the gathering includes 100 people, the likelihood jumps to 88 percent.   Think about that for restaurants. Gov. Greg Abbott is allowing them to operate at 75 percent. If you're going out to eat and sitting inside, the risk is high that you'll come into contact with a sick person. I picked up takeout Friday night from a well-regarded Park Cities Tex-Mex restaurant. I sat in the valet line and waited for my food. I counted nine carfuls of diners pull in and enter.   Gilley's in the Cedars apparently hosted the rapper Larry June, which filled the larger ballroom with people that were packed in shoulder to shoulder. There were at least 500 people inside, judging from the video; according to the risk assessment tool, that room was certain to include at least one COVID-19 positive person. I think back to this Dallas Morning News story about Bottled Blonde, which is legally allowed to let in 992 people because of its capacity limits.   A study this week in the journal Nature by researchers at Stanford and Northwestern highlighted the impact that occupancy limitations have on the spread of the virus. It basically found what other studies have: this virus is spread indoors, largely by a concentration of social butterflies who are picking it up and putting others at risk, often in their own families and social circles. There is good news in that study: "One can achieve a disproportionately large reduction in infections with a small reduction in visits," it reads.   Reducing maximum occupancy is more effective than broader, less targeted measures and is also better for the economy. The governor's executive order basically strips the ability of local authorities to enact measures in the interest of public health. The federal government hasn't been eager to pay people to stay home, which puts businesses—including restaurants—in the remarkably difficult position of operating during a pandemic to keep the business afloat.   Meanwhile, our behavior is all that will save us. And right now, things are looking precarious.   Matt Goodman Online Editorial Director The Rest. Don't want to listen to me? That's fine. (But thank you for reading!) Hear instead from a Parkland doctor. She is alarmed about what she is seeing. Gov. Abbott, where are you? Pandemic learning loss was severe. But at least one trustee doesn't believe the district should lower expectations for kids. The president of the Dallas County Medical Society was part of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine trial. Here, he talks to our Will Maddox about what that was like. With cases so high, we decided it was time to update our takeout and delivery guide. Rosin Saez has you covered. Please tip like you're dining inside. [N.S.: Don't be ridic.] SMU Football Picked a Horrible Time To Be Relevant Again SMU football hasn't been this good since 1984. What will likely be the team's second straight 10-win season in more than three decades just happened to come during a pandemic. READ MORE "I think it's going to be good for the country, and good for the right. If we go through this and the right can be told that well, contrary to all the rumors and all the statements on social media Biden won, it will be helpful." — Doug Deason, perhaps Dallas' largest Trump donor, on the outcome of the election. Click To Read More From His Q&A With Christine Allison More From D Sara Mokuria Is the Mother of Dallas VIEW MORE How COVID-19 Isolates Patients From Their Own Language VIEW MORE Around Town Don't forget we still need to hire a new police chief. In her latest column, Sharon Grigsby puts her cards on the table: the city manager "got it wrong" when he hired Chief U. Reneé Hall. The next chief will find a city with nearly 230 murders on the year, the most in well over a decade, and calls for reform. Here's Grigsby: "When murders rise, we feel less safe, and a chief with the competence to inspire confidence would make a huge difference." Add Boosie Badazz to the list of people who have been shot in Dallas this year. The Baton Rouge rapper was in town for a vigil for his friend and collaborator, MO3, who was shot and killed on Interstate 35 earlier this week. Boosie was hit in the leg at Big T and is expected to be OK. Special shout-out to my former colleague Shawn Shinneman, who explored Texas as it recorded its millionth (!) case of COVID-19. Particularly alarming is what we're seeing in El Paso. Mask up and stay home, folks. There were six shootings across the city this weekend, including one death. Tell Us Your Thoughts. We want to hear about your experience with COVID-19. Have you been tested? Do you know someone who has it? How has your life changed? Let us know. SHARE YOUR STORY