STOCK MARKET "PREDICTOR"OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION LEANS BIDEN WITH 3 HOURS TO GO (Marketwatch)The stock market’s late October tumble is on the verge of delivering bad news to President Donald Trump’s re-election hopes.
The “Presidential Predictor,” popularized by Sam Stovall, CFRA’s chief investment strategist, tracks the S&P 500 index’s SPX, -1.73% performance from July 31 to Oct. 31. Going back to 1944, it’s found that a positive move over that stretch usually corresponds to a presidential victory by the incumbent party, while a negative move signals a loss (see chart below).
The S&P 500 on Friday, the last trading day of October, was down 39.13 points, or 1.2%, at 3,270.98, taking it below the July 31 close at 3,271.12. Trading was choppy, with the index falling as low as 3,240.21.
“On an intraday basis, the Presidential Predictor is now in agreement with the polls. It is obviously going to be a tight election that may take some time to be decided,” Stovall said, in an email.
Polls show Democratic challenger Joe Biden leading Trump nationwide, though his advantage has narrowed in recent weeks. Biden is also seen ahead in key battleground states, though strategists see some scope for Trump to pull out an Electoral College victory, but his path appears more difficult than in 2016. GRA
TRUMP MUST BE SUPERSTITIOUS--HIS LAST CAMPAIGN STOP WILL BE GRAND RAPIDS MICHIGAN--LIKE 2016. GRA:The Trump campaign announced that President Trump will be flying into Grand Rapids for a 1030pm election eve appearance at the Kent County Airport(not the indoor arena of four years ago--which was packed.) It's the same M.O. Trump used in 2016,a successful one that pushed him into the win column in Michigan.
STOCK MARKET "PREDICTOR"OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION LEANS BIDEN WITH 3 HOURS TO GO
ReplyDelete(Marketwatch)The stock market’s late October tumble is on the verge of delivering bad news to President Donald Trump’s re-election hopes.
The “Presidential Predictor,” popularized by Sam Stovall, CFRA’s chief investment strategist, tracks the S&P 500 index’s SPX, -1.73% performance from July 31 to Oct. 31. Going back to 1944, it’s found that a positive move over that stretch usually corresponds to a presidential victory by the incumbent party, while a negative move signals a loss (see chart below).
The S&P 500 on Friday, the last trading day of October, was down 39.13 points, or 1.2%, at 3,270.98, taking it below the July 31 close at 3,271.12. Trading was choppy, with the index falling as low as 3,240.21.
“On an intraday basis, the Presidential Predictor is now in agreement with the polls. It is obviously going to be a tight election that may take some time to be decided,” Stovall said, in an email.
Polls show Democratic challenger Joe Biden leading Trump nationwide, though his advantage has narrowed in recent weeks. Biden is also seen ahead in key battleground states, though strategists see some scope for Trump to pull out an Electoral College victory, but his path appears more difficult than in 2016.
GRA
TRUMP MUST BE SUPERSTITIOUS--HIS LAST CAMPAIGN STOP WILL BE GRAND RAPIDS MICHIGAN--LIKE 2016.
ReplyDeleteGRA:The Trump campaign announced that President Trump will be flying into Grand Rapids for a 1030pm election eve appearance at the Kent County Airport(not the indoor arena of four years ago--which was packed.)
It's the same M.O. Trump used in 2016,a successful one that pushed him into the win column in Michigan.
Why not?
--GRA