Re-posted by Nicholas Stix
Why Immigration Reform Could Survive
8 Nov 4, 2014 3:48 P.M. EST
By Albert R. Hunt
Bloomberg
Even before the votes are counted today, there is a broad consensus that immigration reform will be a casualty of the midterm elections. Republicans killed it in this Congress and there will be more Republicans next year. Moreover, the controversies over children crossing the Mexican border this year may have shifted the politics to the anti-immigration side.
Yet a few professionals in both parties say that reports of reform's demise may be premature. A compelling case can be made that it would be in the interest of both the Republicans and President Barack Obama to get something done.
So despite the conventional wisdom, the odds of the 114th Congress enacting a major immigration reform -- substantively not all that different from the bipartisan bill passed by the Senate last year, may be close to 40 percent.
Here's why it looks so difficult, starting with the Senate. In 2013, the measure passed 68 to 32. As many as 10 supporters could be gone with this election, and most would be replaced by opponents. Some who voted "aye" last year might bolt. For example, Florida Republican Senator Marco Rubio, a crucial backer, may find an excuse to flip because he's running for president and his support for a measure would be a liability in the Republican primaries.
In the House, Speaker John Boehner had wanted to act on a bill this year, but a solid majority of his caucus opposed him, and the same will be true in 2015.
So how is a reform bill in the Republicans' interest? Simple. The Hispanic vote is one of the fastest-growing slices of the U.S. electorate and is especially important in a handful of battleground states. In a presidential race -- where the dynamics are different than in midterm elections -- Republicans can ill-afford to be seen as the anti-immigrant party.
There are a number of Senate Republicans, notably leader Mitch McConnell who voted against the 2013 legislation, but who might be looking for a way to enact something.
Why is reform in Obama's interest? It may be one of the few domestic-policy accomplishments of his final two years in office, a time when all presidents think of legacies.
The trick will be to make it possible for Republicans who switch positions and antagonize the right wing to be able to claim they got important concessions. That could mean even more money allocated to border security, and a watering-down of the provision giving a pathway to citizenship to some undocumented immigrants.
However to keep the support of Hispanic groups and other reform backers, and the White House, these changes will have to be largely cosmetic.
That will require much skill and will.
To contact the writer of this article: Al Hunt at ahunt1@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this article: Max Berley at mberley@bloomberg.net
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Badger19 • 2 days ago
Al has trouble reaching a conclusion so let me help. Immigration reform is in the bag. Republicans are now solidly controlled by the business round table and US Chamber forces. They want cheap labor even in an economy where jobs are scarce, labor participation rate low and salaries stagnant. Republican political operatives know that Christie or Jeb are the preferred candidates of the elites. Legal/corruption issues might take Chris out. Jeb is only a viable candidate if immigration reform is off the table. Obama will do anything to have credit for reform and legalizing illegals; many Democrats depend on minority votes to get elected and can't say no. A smoke screen of border security and other concessions by Obama will get the legislation through between now and the end of 2015. It could move fast given enough smoke and mirrors.
Buzz Leapyear2 • 2 days ago
"The Hispanic vote is one of the fastest-growing slices of the U.S.
electorate and is especially important in a handful of battleground
states"
Well isn't that special. An entire Nation's blood, sweat , tears, and taxes used to keep a political party in power.
How about you start importing West Africans over here too? I hear they would be more than accommodating to your political ambitions if only you give them a place to hang out in the States.
Who knows, there may even be more of them than illegal Hispanics.
Go ahead, I don't mind if you spend all my hard earned tax dollars to build your own private voting blocks. After all, that's why I pay taxes right?
Besides, I would feel down right selfish opposing your desire for personal political gain and power at my expense because I know you would do the same for me if only given the chance.
I think I'll vote for you guys because when push comes to shove I just know you've got my back.
econ1 • 2 days ago
It depends on what you mean by immigration reform. The Democrats don't really want to solve the problem since it would remove a key vote getter. Their union backers aren't especially supportive of lots of additional competition (remember that Chavez marched to the Mexican border to protest illegal immigration that was putting pressure on his workers wages). Republicans seem to think that anyone with some Hispanic genes will always vote for a bigger government. We could have a guest worker program, fast track for needed skills, enforcement of laws.....but that would require some cooperation. We'll see.
Fish Heads • 2 days ago
Nothing would fire up the tea party more than immigration reform. Not gonna happen until they can secure the border.
gingerhead2 • 2 days ago
The immigration reform that I am looking forward to seeing is the enforcement of immigration laws that have been passed by bi-partisan majorities of the House and Senate. This country does not need illegal immigrants when we already have millions of our citizens unemployed.
prado4587 to gingerhead2 • 2 days ago
Immigrations laws need to be enforced instead of carrying out of deportations that are occurring now as prescribed by law http://www.pewresearch.org/fac...
o
gingerhead2 • 2 days ago
Democrats Call For CIVIL WAR on Illegal Immigration
http://www.theguardian.com/us-...
Thankfully for the sane citizen, it is a call for Democrat vs. Democrat war.
EmpressL to gingerhead2 • 2 days ago
Exactly! I'm a Labor Democrat and open borders and granting as pathway to citizenship should be replaced with deportation. We need those 8,300,00 US jobs back.
I also think the Democrats lost because of the Central American fiasco. After he shoved those 90,000 kids of drug lords down our throats, the counties saw how much immigration in general is costing.
John Harlan • 2 days ago
Reform will happen and this will conclude this problem with tight border security, heavy penalties for employers hiring illegals and deportation of all here less than seven years.
In doing this wage stagnation will end, social welfare expense will decrease and those who remain will have the opportunity to become Americans, not Latino Americans that can't read or write English, aren't knowledgable about the constitution,and the country as a whole will be better for it.
No one thought in the 1980's when Reagan signed the immigration law that the Democratic Senate and House would not enforce the law and secure the border.
What I really don't understand about this is every nation including Mexico has laws regarding entering to a country. Illegal entry in most places results in deportation or jail.
Mexico will allow deportation the first time and prison for the second time and the jails there are a place in most jails where surviving is a daily fight. So the question is why do we as a nation feel we need to apologize for our border protection? Why do we fear deportation? Why do we endear illegal labor when these folks force out our own citizens in jobs that eventually lead to better jobs and the most important aspect is gaining the self worth aspect of being a part of instead of being on the sideline? This simple conquest of work motivates people to do better, work harder, learn more, create family, be part of community, and finally be more than yourself with giving to others that are less fortunate.
Gosh what a novel concept of being included and enrich your own life and those around you in community.
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The Contentious Otter John Harlan • 2 days ago
Alright, tell me something. How do you plan to secure the border and what metrics will you use to determine when the border has been secured?
Jan • 2 days ago
Now I oppose illegals, their labor and presence, because it undermines the rule of law. Creating an informal economy of "cash under the table" is a slippery slope to a third world economy, despite it being "free market."
BUT, let me make the following case just to illustrate the complexity of the problem:
Just as Chinese made goods lower the cost of goods, illegals laboring lower the cost of services.
You are probably too young to remember, but in the days when everything was made in America at near union wages, a coal miner could afford one pair of shoes per year for each member of his family. The post 1980s
bonanza of wealthy lifestyle for working class Americans has come from
cheap Chinese goods and illegals harvesting and cooking their food. [Lie.]
Go to the chicken processing plants in Salisbury, MD. You will find all
illegals working at sub-minimum wage. Go to the supermarket. You will
find the cheapest chicken, adjusted for inflation, in your lifetime [Lie. I hardly ever buy chicken anymore, because it is too expensive. That’s why I have bought so much pork over the past five years or so. Having illegal aliens process meat doesn’t reduce food prices for Americans, it just increases profits for criminals in business.]
The Contentious Otter • 2 days ago
Republicans will never pass immigration reform, because it would upset their white nationalist base. Expecting the Republican Party to pass immigration reform is like expecting the Grand Wizard of the Alabama Klu Klux Klan (also known as NRA President James Porter) to go out and start signing up voters at an NAACP Voter Registration drive.
The Teapublicans will continue to do what they've done for years, they'll point fingers at the President, accuse him of failing to do his job, while they fail to suggest any means of securing the border, fail to offer any kind of metrics for determining what the phrase "securing the border" actually means, and just generally act like obnoxious finger-pointing children.
jim The Contentious Otter • 2 days ago
You misrepresent the people who object. It's far more than just "white people". Anybody who objects to the violation of the rule of law will also object. If anything, most of the racism is on the other side. At least, the news media speaks as if the hispanics are the racist ones, and we have no reason to believe that this isn't the case.
The Contentious Otter jim • a day ago
Any side that complains endlessly about an issue, while refusing to name metrics that would satisfy them that a goal has been achieved is the one to be blamed. As soon as conservatives can name a series of objective criteria which -once met- will satisfy them that the border is secured, then the conversation can move forward. So long as conservatives continue to use the "insecure border" talking point, while continuously failing to name the criteria that they feel constitute a secure border, then the whole issue is nothing more than a talking point of the white nationalist Republican base.
Come up with some objective criteria, goals, and means of pursuing those goals and we'll talk. So long as you are unwilling, or unable to do that, then you have zero credibility and you're nothing more than a yapping Confederate blowhard.
jim The Contentious Otter • a day ago
_I'm_ not one of those people who are particularly concerned about the security of the border. If anything, I think that people who focus on security of the border are implicitly (and improperly) reassuring the illegals who are already here, "Okay, you are here, you are safe!". Not for me!!! The highest priority should be to setting up an environment that makes sure that the illegals already here AREN'T SECURE. Whether by deportation or by self-deportation, they should leave, probably within 2-3 years. Immediately require use of E-verify for all employment. Reward all employers for turning in illegal aliens. Initiate serious punishments for all people selling to, renting to, or dealing with illegals in any way. Quite literally, declare illegal aliens "outlaws": "out-law", an old term which means outside of the protection of the law. A citizen can do anything to an "outlaw", without limit, without punishment.
Charles Edward Brown • 2 days ago
Immigration Reform is just code words for Amnesty. We want all illegal aliens deported and our borders secured. Impeach President Obama if he tries to grant Amnesty.
jmquillian • 2 days ago
If the GOP chooses some mythical latino voter over their own voters (and a majority of the public) the die will be irrevocably cast to determine the outcome in 2016 (which the GOP is almost certain to lose anyway). Why? Well, it would please the Chamber of Commerce and large corporate interests. Whatever.
PetEng • a day ago
Hispanics vote based on economic lines, nothing else. At every income level they mimic whites (this is different from Blacks and Asians).
Legalizing poor Hispanics does nothing for Republicans, it simply accelerates their decline.
PetEng • a day ago
Low skill immigration is a loser issue that has doomed countless campaigns. No 1st world citizen in 2014 wants more poor people.
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