HOSPITAL BEDS IN US WILL BE FULL OF CORONAVIRUS PATIENTS BY MAY,SAYS ONE ESTIMATE (ZH) A sobering analysis of how coronavirus is likely to impact the US healthcare system suggests that hospitals will be quickly overwhelmed with patients, and that all available beds will be filled by around May 8th if the virus tracks with Italy's figures and 10% of patients require an ICU.
Medical workers in protective suits attend to coronavirus patients in the intensive care unit of a designated hospital in Wuhan, in China’s Hubei province, last week. (China Daily/Reuters) Of note, the Straits Times reported last week that thousands of people were waiting for hospital beds in South Korea as the disease surges.
Liz Specht, a PhD in biology and the associate director of Science and Technology for the Good Food Institute laid out her concerns in a lengthy Twitter thread on Friday, which you can see here on Twitter, or continue reading below.
Liz Specht @LizSpecht · 22h I think most people aren’t aware of the risk of systemic healthcare failure due to #COVID19 because they simply haven’t run the numbers yet. Let’s talk math.
We can expect that we’ll continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days (this is a typical doubling time across several epidemiological studies). Here I mean *actual* cases. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster in the short term due to new test kit rollouts. We’re looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on. Exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go. As the healthcare system begins to saturate under this case load, it will become increasingly hard to detect, track, and contain new transmission chains. In absence of extreme interventions, this likely won’t slow significantly until hitting >>1% of susceptible population. GRA:Hoping Trump is right--that warm weather will cause a decline in cases--or his re-election and many people's lives are in trouble. --GRA
The new condoms will be similar to the ones Leslie Nielsen wore in "Naked Gun".
ReplyDelete--GRA
HOSPITAL BEDS IN US WILL BE FULL OF CORONAVIRUS PATIENTS BY MAY,SAYS ONE ESTIMATE
ReplyDelete(ZH)
A sobering analysis of how coronavirus is likely to impact the US healthcare system suggests that hospitals will be quickly overwhelmed with patients, and that all available beds will be filled by around May 8th if the virus tracks with Italy's figures and 10% of patients require an ICU.
Medical workers in protective suits attend to coronavirus patients in the intensive care unit of a designated hospital in Wuhan, in China’s Hubei province, last week. (China Daily/Reuters)
Of note, the Straits Times reported last week that thousands of people were waiting for hospital beds in South Korea as the disease surges.
Liz Specht, a PhD in biology and the associate director of Science and Technology for the Good Food Institute laid out her concerns in a lengthy Twitter thread on Friday, which you can see here on Twitter, or continue reading below.
Liz Specht
@LizSpecht
· 22h
I think most people aren’t aware of the risk of systemic healthcare failure due to #COVID19 because they simply haven’t run the numbers yet. Let’s talk math.
We can expect that we’ll continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days (this is a typical doubling time across several epidemiological studies). Here I mean *actual* cases. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster in the short term due to new test kit rollouts.
We’re looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on. Exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go.
As the healthcare system begins to saturate under this case load, it will become increasingly hard to detect, track, and contain new transmission chains. In absence of extreme interventions, this likely won’t slow significantly until hitting >>1% of susceptible population.
GRA:Hoping Trump is right--that warm weather will cause a decline in cases--or his re-election and many people's lives are in trouble.
--GRA