Monday, November 02, 2020

Big Discrepancies in Polling—Trafalgar Says the Others are Wrong Again

By Grand Rapids Anonymous
Monday, November 2, 2020 at 1:25:00 A.M. EST

(REAL CLEAR POLITICS) Trafalgar Group Chief Pollster Robert Cahaly who accurately predicted the 2016 presidential election claims President Trump will win again in 2020.

ROBERT CAHALY: It seems rather strange to me they haven’t learned any lessons.

They say they corrected things. That is nonsense – about adjusting their sample for education weighting, yet when we have – again in place in Florida, in the Gilliam-DeSantis race, last year, 2018, they were all wrong again. We were the only ones right too.

PETE HEGSETH: The governor’s race in Florida. Take one place in Michigan. It has Trafalgar race in Michigan, president up 1%. "Real Clear Politics" the famous aggregator, has the president down eight points. That is a nine-point gap. You have a strong Senate candidate there in John James [GRA: Whom I can’t stand]. When you look at a race like that, in particular, are you confident that the president’s ahead there right now?

ROBERT CAHALY: You know, I really am. I look at three factors. One, there is [sic] a lot of folks who are absolutely enthralled with John James as a candidate. He is also kind of, coming in as an outsider which makes his message mesh very well – giving some strength to the ticket. Also, we can’t, there is no one that Trump can be more appreciative of than Gretchen Whitmer, because she has single-handedly created environment where people in Michigan – want to get back to business and that is also an advantage for the president there. Pete: yeah.

HEGSETH: A lot of key contrasts there in Michigan. Listen, I for one hope your polling is correct. I think people should be paying a lot of attention to it, as opposed to dismissing it.

GRA: Trump has too much to overcome, imho.
--GRA

   

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